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Model predicting deaths in Utah fluctuates significantly week to week

Posted at 6:08 PM, Apr 07, 2020
and last updated 2020-04-07 20:08:40-04

When public health leaders talk about projections for the spread of COVID-19, they are often referring to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

The models show consistency on a national level with wide fluctuations locally.

National estimates of deaths by August 4 (projected end of “first wave”):

  • As of March 30: 82,141
  • As of April 7: 81,766

Utah estimates of deaths by August 4:

  • As of April 1: 586
  • As of April 7: 186

Nevada is predicted to suffer the worst wave of deaths among our neighbors. The site currently predicts 916 deaths there, showing a predicted shortage of 243 standard hospital beds and 300 ICU beds.

As of April 7, the predicted death totals for other neighboring states by August 4:

  • Arizona: 570
  • Colorado: 302
  • Idaho: 69
  • Wyoming: 119

The site predicts a peak of the outbreak in Utah on April 26th, compared with a national peak predicted on April 16th.

Like all things related to statistical projections, consistency comes with the wealth of data that can be marshalled by people who really understand their area of expertise, so national numbers are likely most predictive, followed by numbers for states with larger populations.