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New poll numbers in race between Matheson and Love

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Posted at 12:47 PM, Nov 02, 2012
and last updated 2012-11-02 19:14:58-04

A new poll has created a stir in the race between Congressman Jim Matheson and Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love.

The poll, released by the Salt Lake Tribune and Mason-Dixon Polling, shows Mia Love at 52 percent and Jim Matheson at 40 percent. This is a very different picture when compared to the other polls.

The poll was conducted by the reputable firm Mason-Dixon Polling.

The other thing to notice in these numbers is that every other poll has shown a race that is a dead heat.

Meanwhile, a poll conducted for the Matheson campaign by Anzalone Lizst Research shows Matheson leading 46 percent to 44 percent for Love.

Matheson's team appears to have released them to say they think Mason-Dixon is wrong and the race is still very close.

While it is appropriate to take a campaign's own poll with a grain of salt, it is also worth noticing Matheson's firm. Anzalone is also a respected national firm and the campaigns spend a lot of money to try to get accurate polls.

A Brigham Young University poll also showed a tied race two weeks ago.

"Two things could be going on that would explain the difference. One the Tribune poll is an outlier for some reason and two, we've had thousands and thousands of dollars spent in this race and, even in two weeks, and thing could have shifted," said Quin Monson, director of BYU Center for the Study of Politics and Elections.

An outlier is a common term for a poll that for some reason seems to have gotten a result outside of the likely boundaries. For example, a pollster could think 55 percent of voters will be women so they make sure they talk to that many more women than men.