Donald Trump is in his weakest political position of the entire presidential campaign.
Recent national polls show Hillary Clinton’s margin over Trump to be in the high single digits — that’s blowout territory in recent presidential campaign history.
And it doesn’t look much better for him in some several key battleground states. Our latest snapshot of the current state of play in the battle for 270 electoral votes is one that is moving significantly toward Clinton.
— Arizona (11) moves from from “lean Republican” to “battleground”
— Utah (6) moves from “solid Republican” to “battleground”
— Florida (29) moves from “battleground” to “lean Democrat”
— Nevada (6) moves from “battleground” to “lean Democrat”
Road to 270: Electoral College map
Note: The split congressional district ratings are symbolized with diagonal lines.
The state of play
In this new electoral map outlook, we have moved the biggest electoral prize among the battlegrounds – Florida – to leaning in Clinton’s direction. The same is true for Nevada.
We have also moved Utah to a true battleground due to third-party candidate Evan McMullin surging in several polls there and the clear struggle Trump has had to rally what is usually the most reliably Republican state to his side.
And for all the talk of Clinton’s team trying to expand the map into places like Georgia, Missouri and Indiana, the one Republican-leaning state that does seem to have shifted full force into the toss-up battleground category is Arizona. It will likely not be too long before we see Clinton campaign in the state following on the heels of high profile surrogates such as her daughter, Chelsea, Michelle Obama and Bernie Sanders.
The math is becoming truly daunting for Trump. In our current outlook, which is just a snapshot of the current state of play and not a projection of what will happen on November 8, the states solidly in Clinton’s corner or leaning in her direction add up to 307 electoral votes — well above the required 270 to win the White House. Trump’s got 179 electoral votes either solidly or leaning his way. The remaining true battleground contests are in Arizona, Ohio, North Carolina, Utah, Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, and the 2nd Congressional District in Nebraska. That leaves a total of 52 electoral votes up for grabs.
Trump has a final debate performance in front of a huge national audience and 20 more days of non-stop campaigning to dramatically upend this race and mount what would be the greatest political comeback in modern times. He has proven unable or unwilling to do that over the course of the last 23 days since the first debate.
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (4), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3) (157 total)
Georgia (16), Iowa (6), (22 total)
Arizona (11), Ohio (18), Maine 2nd Congressional District (1) Nebraska 2nd Congressional District (1), North Carolina (15), Utah (6) (52 total)
Florida (29), Colorado (9), Michigan (16), Nevada (6),New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), (107 total)
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12), Minnesota (10), New Mexico (5) (200 total)