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More cases because of more testing? No. More people are sick.

Posted at 10:19 PM, Jun 22, 2020
and last updated 2020-06-23 00:42:02-04

How did we get where we are, with a 7-day rolling average of 471 COVID-19 case increases in Utah?

When Utah went to code red, high risk level with the motto, “Stay Safe, Stay Home,” we averaged 52 new cases per day. That was March 27.

When we went to orange, moderate risk, we averaged 149. That was May 1.

We were a little better, which seems like the way it ought to be, when most of us went to yellow. The average was 141 on May 15.

And now Utah is still in the yellow phase, except in 10 counties where everyone already has a mile or so of personal space — they’re green — and Salt Lake City, which remains at orange. And we’re at 471 daily cases.

It’s because we’re doing all these tests, right?

No, and yes.

Yes, we’re doing more testing. But back when we did a few hundred tests a day, about five percent of them were coming back positive.

Now we are doing thousands a day, and about 12 percent are coming back positive.

More people are sick. It’s that simple.