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End of health care subsidy could hit red states hard, KFF warns

KFF warns ACA premiums could spike as a key subsidy expires this year, leaving millions of Americans facing higher health care costs.
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As Democrats cite changes to health care policy as their reason for not keeping the government funded, a new analysis from KFF shows how much more some Americans will pay for insurance premiums.

Those who use Affordable Care Act-subsidized plans have had their premiums capped based on total income. If a plan exceeded that cap, the enrollee received a tax credit.

The tax credit is set to expire because a provision in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 ends this year. Democrats have sought to extend the provision, but Republicans have opposed continuing the subsidies.

Currently, a family of four with a household income of $90,000 pays about $4,680 for health care premiums through the Affordable Care Act. That same family would lose $3,735 in tax credits, increasing their total premium to $8,415 a year.

Citing federal data, KFF estimates the average subsidized enrollee would save $1,016 annually in premium payments if Congress extended enhanced tax credits through 2026.

KFF estimates 24 million Americans use the Affordable Care Act marketplace for insurance, with the vast majority receiving subsidies.

Drew Altman, KFF president and CEO, said some Republicans may begin supporting certain subsidies.

“The impact will be felt especially hard in red states that did not expand Medicaid and by groups Republicans traditionally rely on to vote for them,” he said. “It’s an open question whether President Trump’s loyal base will protect him — and Republicans more generally — from the usual consequences a party in power faces when voters’ costs rise, especially when they were promised they would go down.”