SALT LAKE CITY — New polling data released ahead of this weekend's Utah Republican Party convention finds "not sure" as the winner of the Senate race.
The survey, conducted among Republican voters earlier this month by Noble Predictive Insights, finds Congressman John Curtis in the lead over Brent Orrin Hatch, former House Speaker Brad Wilson and Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs. But 41% of Republican voters said they were "not sure" who they would vote for.
Still, among the candidates? Curtis has a 2-1 lead over everyone else in the field.
The Noble Predictive Insights survey found some other interesting data points.
"Although Utah is a reliably red state, it is not just one shade of red," Noble wrote. "Exactly half of Utah’s GOP electorate is party-first, identifying as supporters of the Republican Party, compared to only 35% who are Trump-first, aligning themselves with Donald Trump. When asked about their criteria for selecting a candidate for Senate, only 26% expressed a desire for unwavering support for Trump and his allies. Instead, a majority (58%) of GOP voters seek a candidate who is Trump-adjacent yet willing to challenge Trump when necessary."
Trump still holds considerable sway even in Utah, with 62% of those surveyed indicating they would likely support a candidate the former president has endorsed.
The same cannot be said for retiring Sen. Mitt Romney, once the GOP nominee for president.
"While Romney's endorsement would be a wash among all Republicans (41% more likely / 47% less likely), it holds potential sway among specific demographic segments," Noble wrote. Romney performs best among self-described moderate, college-educated, younger and "party first" Republicans.
But it's worth pointing out that this is a survey of overall Utah Republican voters and not necessarily GOP delegates, who tend to lean harder to the right. This weekend's convention could see some interesting results. For example:
- Governor Spencer Cox is almost certain to face a primary battle in June. While he remains popular statewide (a recent Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll gave him a 64% approval rating among Republicans and Democrats), not so much with GOP delegates. In the past they've booed him at convention and branded him a "RINO" (Republican in Name Only). Delegates may advance Rep. Phil Lyman, R-Blanding, and/or former Utah GOP Chair Carson Jorgensen to face off against him. Cox gathered signatures to secure a spot on the ballot.
- Newly-elected Congresswoman Celeste Maloy may face trouble at convention after a surprise endorsement by Sen. Mike Lee for one of her opponents. Utah's senior senator endorsed Colby Jenkins over the incumbent Maloy. She pulled off her own upset win last year in the special nominating convention when Congressman Chris Stewart retired. None of the GOP candidates for Utah's 2nd Congressional District gathered signatures so the state party convention is their only path to the ballot.
- Expect a free-for-all when it comes to Utah's 3rd Congressional District with nine Republican candidates on the ballot. Chris Herrod and Mike Kennedy have been delegate favorites in the past. Roosevelt Mayor JR Bird, Case Lawrence, Stewart Peay and Utah State Auditor John "Frugal" Dougall all gathered signatures and qualified for a spot in the primary so regardless of what happens at convention? They're on the ballot in June.
- Will Sen. Mitt Romney show up at convention? Every time his name is uttered, some delegates boo loudly and he's skipped the Utah GOP event in years past. Now that he's retiring? It's unlikely he'll show up.
